房地产行业：重点城市政策收紧、新房市场表现平稳

　　_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地产板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上涨 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2._blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>25%, _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>28个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中位列_blank class=infotextkey>第 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>25: 本周_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大盘_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上涨 4.9%, _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>28个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中仅农林牧渔_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下跌,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地产板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上涨 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2._blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>25%,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>再度_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>跑输_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大盘,在 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>28个_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中表现位列_blank class=infotextkey>第 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>25,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>近期板块表现较弱。 本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>周末板块 PE 及 PB _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>估值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>升至 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10.0X 及 1.5X,均略_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高于 1年_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中枢_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>水平,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>近期板块_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>估值_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有所_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回升,而板块 PE 及 PB _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>估值相对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全_blank class=infotextkey>部 A 股的折价为 _blank class=infotextkey>3_blank class=infotextkey>3%及 _blank class=infotextkey>11%,若剔除_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>银行股折价分别为 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>50%及 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>28%,随着_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>连续_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>跑输_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大盘折价_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有所扩_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大。 本周板块涨幅前五为亚太实业、绿景_blank class=infotextkey>控股、.fan_blank class=infotextkey>g558.com/_blank class=infotextkey>guan_blank class=infotextkey>gmin_blank class=infotextkey>g/ tar_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>光明_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地产等,跌幅前五为_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大港_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股份、三湘_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>印象、 *ST 华业等,其_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大港_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股份本周_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公告股_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>东拟_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>减持 0.6_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2%, 三湘_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>印象_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回复_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>深交所问询,此外 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2.86亿股_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>限售股将解禁,占总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股本_blank class=infotextkey>比例 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>20.87%,*ST 华业提示可能将被_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>终止_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上市。_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>泰禾、 世_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>联表现较为靠前,涨幅分别为 5.4_blank class=infotextkey>3%和 5._blank class=infotextkey>39%,本周传《_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>租赁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>条例》_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有望_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>年内推出,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>住_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>租赁_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>概念_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>拉升,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>金_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>荣盛涨幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>超 _blank class=infotextkey>3%,表现同样靠前,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>公司_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中仅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新城和华发_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>股价_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下跌,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降幅分别为 1.55%及 0.1_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2%。

　　_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>西安_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>限购_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>升级、传_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>杭州_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>苏州_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>贷款_blank class=infotextkey>收紧: 1) 外_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>地_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>人_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>买_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房社_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>要求由 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2年延长至 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>5年, _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新增_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>落户者满 1年可买,临潼纳入_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>限购, _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2) _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>消息传_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>苏州_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>多家_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>银行停止放贷、放款_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>时间延长等,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>中行_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>杭州_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>率先_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上调_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>首套_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房贷_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>利率等。

　　本周 _blank class=infotextkey>31城_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成交量同比_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回升,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>近期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体表现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平稳: _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成交_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上, _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点_blank class=infotextkey>31城_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成交量同比在连_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降 _blank class=infotextkey>3周后_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回升,年初至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计同比升 5.8%,升幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>再度扩_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>大,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>近期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>总_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>体维持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平稳。 本周_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一线_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成交量同比维持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高位,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点二三线同比由负_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>转正,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计来看年初至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今一二三线_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成交同比_blank class=infotextkey>35.0%/1.5%/_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1._blank class=infotextkey>3%,三线_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计同比_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>转正。 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供给_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上, _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10城_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新增_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供给同比连_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>降三周后_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>出现_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回升,年初至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新增_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供给_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计升 16.6%,而_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>成交_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供应比_blank class=infotextkey>继续在 1以_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>下,本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>周末狭义去化周期 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>10.8_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>5个月,连升 _blank class=infotextkey>3周。 年初至_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>今_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点一二三线_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>累计_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新增_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供给同比分别为 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>21._blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2%/_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>1_blank class=infotextkey>3.7%/14.1%,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>近期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>一线_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>供给升幅快速_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回落,而三线升幅_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>明显_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>提升,截止本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>周末一二三线去化周期8._blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>28/6.18/14._blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>21个月,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>近期三线去化周期_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>持续提_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高。

　　维持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>推荐评级: _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政策_blank class=infotextkey>面本周_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>西安_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>限购_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>升级、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>苏州_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>杭州传_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房贷_blank class=infotextkey>收紧,基本符_blank class=infotextkey>合_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>我们_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>楼市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政策分化加剧、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>有压的预期,_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>政府对_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>楼市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>价格_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>波动维持较_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高的敏感度;基本_blank class=infotextkey>面_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>上, 5月_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>行业_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>数据_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>全_blank class=infotextkey>面_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>回落, 而从_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>高频_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>数据来看, _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>城市_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>房_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>市场表现基本_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>平稳。 _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>我们维持_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>推荐 1)_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>估值较低、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>布局_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>重点_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>城市的_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>弹性标的阳光城、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>新城, _blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>2)低估_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>龙_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>头_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>万科、_blank class=infotextkey>get=_blank class=infotextkey>保利及招蛇。